Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 20.578675 22.335436 24.231962 26.441789 28.958981 31.752595 35.109261
2025-08-31 17.602468 19.976829 22.717749 26.155620 30.410351 35.583366 42.477725
2025-09-07 15.584883 18.278211 21.547921 25.892405 31.646732 39.214386 50.302244
2025-09-14 14.147849 17.024217 20.658388 25.720471 32.822998 42.837156 58.870895
2025-09-21 12.966440 15.921194 19.775186 25.354832 33.573672 45.890844 67.292476
2025-09-28 12.476278 15.641811 19.910098 26.349693 36.356269 52.434427 83.259558
2025-10-05 11.717069 14.913582 19.329766 26.201387 37.327616 56.225430 95.578647
2025-10-12 11.091342 14.308182 18.850505 26.120452 38.352562 60.270095 109.887903
2025-10-19 10.663300 13.941410 18.672800 26.466468 40.116366 66.024966 130.504934
2025-10-26 10.163437 13.429708 18.227255 26.316560 40.962661 70.163283 149.291343
2025-11-02 9.681130 12.909099 17.722341 26.004946 41.449446 73.652480 168.305996
2025-11-09 9.322890 12.549002 17.435619 26.027056 42.562419 78.785455 195.773298
2025-11-16 8.925630 12.112707 17.006730 25.775720 43.138593 82.944427 223.818288
2025-11-23 8.561142 11.706788 16.599534 25.524924 43.686553 87.234664 256.739647
2025-11-30 8.228416 11.331721 16.216822 25.280503 44.212505 91.654454 295.493293
2025-12-07 7.938015 11.007264 15.895641 25.118174 44.893045 96.740487 344.782921
2025-12-14 7.636344 10.649410 15.495212 24.766356 45.092787 100.526188 393.369015
2025-12-21 7.580951 10.682201 15.759324 25.727946 48.518868 115.618913 553.106593
2025-12-28 7.348004 10.413948 15.483591 25.584946 49.245668 122.171344 668.532423
2026-01-04 7.140880 10.178273 15.250596 25.506864 50.127319 129.712114 827.357110
2026-01-11 7.008641 10.060042 15.218310 25.841067 52.145801 142.626648 1139.162740
2026-01-18 6.815100 9.830283 14.971169 25.696313 52.854376 150.672704 1453.637280
2026-01-25 6.611246 9.574826 14.663633 25.395350 53.085902 156.862667 1814.812769